Reading Between the Lines of Double Rebates
October 17th, 2006
A friend pointed out to me that Canon is running its double rebate deal for the year. I’m not particularly in the market for anything, but I took a look out of curiousity. For the most part, it’s chump change; thirty bucks off a $380 flash is hardly worth the paper work. However, that rebate on the 5D is a sizeable $300. Double it by buying a lens, like a 50 f.14, and you get $600 rebate on the body and a $40 rebate on the lens. With the 5D currently selling for $2800 and the fifty for $315, the rebates can get you both for less than $2500, with shipping! Yeah, yeah, the 5D is still really just a $400-$500 camera with a $2000 digital supplement, but $2500 for the body and a lens that won’t suck is pretty spiffy in the digital realm.
If I read the right forums, I bet I could find a number of people wondering if these rebates mean that Canon is clearing out stock in anticipation of releasing a 6D this winter. Note that even though the 5D is only twice the price of a 30D , the 5D gets triple the rebate of the 30D. Perhaps a 40D is not imminent. Perhaps Canon has got a $2000 6D waiting in the wings. Perhaps.
Surely Canon must refresh the 30D this winter if they don’t want sales of the 10MP Rebel to kill off their mid-level DSLR. Or maybe they are abandoning the cropped frame mid-level DSLR market. Perhaps they think the new Rebel has got this market just about wrapped up. They may be right about that. The new Rebel looks pretty capable. It’s buffer is almost as big as the 30D’s - take into account the 400D’s larger files size, and its buffer may actually be bigger in MB than the 30D’s. The AF and metering systems look to be the same, although the 400D doesn’t get a spot meter. The 400D gets Kelvin WB settings, which the 30D doesn’t have. You do get significantly more info in the VF with the 30D.
It doesn’t seem like Canon has left a lot out of the 400D. Apart from the added VF info and a spot meter, I’m not sure what the alleged 40D would have to offer. Maybe a real mirror lock up? Canon users always seem bent up on that issue. What could they add to a 40D that would justify spending $500 more on it? Nothing.
Which brings us back around to my orignial point. The 40D is dead in the water. Canon thinks they can wrap up the midlevel with the 400D. The 6D willl target more apsirational users with a price point probably under two grand and some minimal updates to the 5D’s feature set. I’m betting it gets some sensor tweaks and a higher frame rate. If they pull it off, expect to see prices on the D200 drop to $1300.
If I read the right forums, I bet I could find a number of people wondering if these rebates mean that Canon is clearing out stock in anticipation of releasing a 6D this winter. Note that even though the 5D is only twice the price of a 30D , the 5D gets triple the rebate of the 30D. Perhaps a 40D is not imminent. Perhaps Canon has got a $2000 6D waiting in the wings. Perhaps.
Surely Canon must refresh the 30D this winter if they don’t want sales of the 10MP Rebel to kill off their mid-level DSLR. Or maybe they are abandoning the cropped frame mid-level DSLR market. Perhaps they think the new Rebel has got this market just about wrapped up. They may be right about that. The new Rebel looks pretty capable. It’s buffer is almost as big as the 30D’s - take into account the 400D’s larger files size, and its buffer may actually be bigger in MB than the 30D’s. The AF and metering systems look to be the same, although the 400D doesn’t get a spot meter. The 400D gets Kelvin WB settings, which the 30D doesn’t have. You do get significantly more info in the VF with the 30D.
It doesn’t seem like Canon has left a lot out of the 400D. Apart from the added VF info and a spot meter, I’m not sure what the alleged 40D would have to offer. Maybe a real mirror lock up? Canon users always seem bent up on that issue. What could they add to a 40D that would justify spending $500 more on it? Nothing.
Which brings us back around to my orignial point. The 40D is dead in the water. Canon thinks they can wrap up the midlevel with the 400D. The 6D willl target more apsirational users with a price point probably under two grand and some minimal updates to the 5D’s feature set. I’m betting it gets some sensor tweaks and a higher frame rate. If they pull it off, expect to see prices on the D200 drop to $1300.
October 17th, 2006
Interesting observations. I speculated about something similar recently: http://www.gdanmitchell.com/2006/08/23#a788
Take care,
Dan
October 17th, 2006
Dan, you might be right that they will just drop the price on the 5D instead of replacing it.
October 17th, 2006
I have seen this same lower price observation for the 5D elsewhere as well. Considering myself in the market for a 30-40D-ish, I definitely would not mind a 5D instead.
October 19th, 2006
Canon has new technologies from lower-end models to incorporate in the higher-end bodies. As is their custom they work out the kinks at the low-end first. Given the price/end-result discrepency between the 30D and 400D, and the dramatic rebate on the 5D, we’ll probably see a 40D to replace the 30D and a cheap 7D added to the product line.
October 19th, 2006
Jan, I’m not sure I see the link between introducing technologies in lower end bodies and the likelihood of a 40D. In my mind, the competence of the 400D combined with the dropping price of the 5D seems to compromise the value proposition of a 30D replacment.